Update Win Probability Percentages Based On Historical Deal Data

azalaquett

Hi HubSpot Community!

Win Probability % on Deal Stages is currently manually set by the user. It would be valuable to our organization if there was the option to go from Manual to Automated for setting these values -- these % could automatically update based on real deal close data gathered overtime in the HubSpot platform. Of course there would need to be logic in place to ensure a bad quarter, etc. didn't skew overall % for most accurate forecasting, but overall would be helpful for this % to update automatically based on HubSpot Data. 

Thanks for your consideration! If anyone else would see this as valuable feel free to weigh in. 

6 Replies
gelflex-cc
Recognized Expert

@azalaquett Great thought. So glad you decided to post here. 

Shak
Member

I feel like this should solve some if not all of your issue here:

 

https://knowledge.hubspot.com/contacts/determine-likelihood-to-close-with-predictive-lead-scoring

 

Let me know your thoughts

gelflex-cc
Recognized Expert

@Shak great article. Since the percentage is set by user there is inconsistency. 

Shak
Member

@gelflex-cc The percentage is actually calculated through the HubSpot machine learning module that is based on contact interaction. As it's a contact property @azalaquett would need to then create a workflow to copy the data from the "likelihood to close" field over to a custom field on a deal record. Then run a report using this new custom field as a parameter.

 

Workflow article can be found here: https://blog.hubspot.com/customers/working-around-workflows

azalaquett
Contributor

Thanks @Shak. What I'm referring to is specifically in regards to the Win Probability at each Deal Stage which is then used to calculate Forceasted Revenue. The metrics used to calculate the Predictive "Likelihood to close" value are Firmographic information, web page visits, etc. What I'm saying is hey, we don't have to predict, etc. if there is already real data in the system over time. Use the actual Win Rate data at each Deal Stage overtime and then autoupdate the Win Probabilities over time. Right now they are manually input when a Deal Stage is created and can be edited manually based on the Win Data (which we will do over time for more accurate Forecasting). Does this make sense?

 

That being said, I can see that your solution to copy the Likelihood to Close data over to the Deal record as the next best option - thanks! The limitations are still two-fold:

1. "Likelihood to close" doesn't take into Account historical Win data (at least not according to the Knowledgebase article). 

2. A custom report would need to be made with a Formula field to multiply the Likelihood to Win Percent by the Amount Field in the Deal. 

 

 

MyCaptain
Participant

Valid idea. Having a manual value doesn't make sense at all. 
Take this example: I have two reps, with conversion or close rate of 5% & 10% Respectively. 
Even if the deal value in the pipeline is the same, their result or forecast value should depend on the historical data of the particular rep to give a more accurate & reliable forecasting. 

 

For a new rep, these probability values can be averaged as per the account data. 
This is much needed, else Deal Stage is just a name sake features not useful at all at it's current configuration.