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HubSpot's deal forecast reports are weighted by deal stage probability by defulat and can show you the weighted value of deals at each stage and in the pipeline overall.
I am experiencing this same issue and figured out the problem. There are two canned revenue forecast reports: (1) Revenue forecast by deal stage and (2) Deal revenue forecast by stages. The former does not work properly. It shows the entire deal amount regardless of the deal probability. The latter does show the forecast amount based on deal probability.
Hubspot, can you please fix the Revenue by deal stage report?
HubSpot's deal forecast reports are weighted by deal stage probability by defulat and can show you the weighted value of deals at each stage and in the pipeline overall.