Is the GenAI Honeymoon Over?

[goconnor]

I came across this article arguing that the GenAI honeymoon is over. The TLDR is that GenAI is not delivering on its promises and that the bubble is beginning to burst. What are your thoughts? --- This post was migrated from connect.com and was originally published at an earlier date.

[Adriane]

The argument that the honeymoon is over is worth considering, but it may be an oversimplification of a complex situation. Here are a few thoughts: 1. Overhyped Expectations It's true that GenAI, like many technological innovations, was initially surrounded by tremendous hype. This created sky-high expectations that were difficult to meet. The rapid advancements and the promises of revolutionary changes in various sectors, from healthcare to creative industries, led to an optimistic outlook that may not have fully accounted for the technical and practical challenges involved. 2. Current Limitations The limitations highlighted by Gary Marcus, such as data quality, model interpretability, and ethical concerns, are valid. These are significant hurdles that need to be addressed for GenAI to achieve its full potential. However, these limitations are not necessarily indicative of a "burst bubble" but rather part of the natural progression and maturation of any technology. Early-stage technologies often face such growing pains. 3. Economic and Regulatory Pressures Economic realities and regulatory concerns are real and impactful. The cost of developing and maintaining advanced AI systems is high, and regulatory scrutiny is increasing. These factors can slow down the pace of development and deployment, leading to a more measured and possibly more sustainable growth trajectory. 4. Shifting Focus The shift in focus towards neurosymbolic AI and other approaches is also notable. This doesn't necessarily spell the end for GenAI but rather an evolution of the field. Combining different AI methodologies could lead to more robust and versatile systems. The diversification of AI research and application strategies is a healthy sign of an evolving field. 5. Long-Term Potential Despite the current challenges and the fading of initial euphoria, the long-term potential of GenAI remains significant. AI technologies have already demonstrated transformative impacts in various areas, and continued investment and research are likely to yield substantial benefits. The path to widespread and impactful adoption may be longer and more complex than initially thought, but that doesn't negate the potential for significant advancements. So the idea that the GenAI honeymoon is over might reflect a necessary recalibration of expectations rather than a fundamental failure of the technology. Addressing the highlighted issues and integrating more diverse AI approaches can pave the way for more sustainable and impactful progress. The narrative of a "burst bubble" might be more accurately seen as a transition from hype to a more realistic and pragmatic phase of AI development. --- This post was migrated from connect.com and was originally published at an earlier date.

[nlafakis]

I'm beyond furious with how things are right now and wish I could just paintball every reporter I hear the words "hype/bubble" coming out of. Wall Street are kicking and screaming because "there's nothing to invest in!" and that's been done on purpose, so that the progress of this technology would not be subject to the insatiable greed which is currently bursting the "bubble." Fact of the matter is that it's not a bubble. The amount of progress and insane changes that have already occurred coupled with what's going to be releasing in December... All I can say is that - We are not prepared, we think we are, but we aren't. I like to think I've managed my expectations well and to be honest I'd put most of my timelines further out than most who are at ground zero about it, but even my estimations have been eclipsed by the pace of progress. I never would have in my wildest dreams expected to have reached what Q-STaR is capable of in our lifetimes let alone this quickly. People don't understand how transformative that evolution of this tech is going to be. What you're going to see next is just agentic bullshit, multiple LLMs working with apps and running commands. It's cute, and it's definitely a Nitro+Supercharged version of what we're doing now, but its so pathetic in comparison to what's coming after it - I can't even. I'm invested in the future, in my retirement, 10-20 years from now when this tech is the bedrock of what we do day in and day out. It's the new Blue Chips and brokers are mad because they can't capitalize on it right now, even though companies are throwing around hundreds of billions of dollars at it. They think they should be making money, but the fact is that the companies are shoring up their infrastructure so that in about 2 years, they're able to handle what comes. 2 years is too long for brokers to wait for a payout. Can't buy cocaine and strippers with money that won't be here for 2 years 😂😂😂😂😂 What's hilarious is that this this their fault...they're the idiots who don't know that this is a technological revolution and not just some new Furby/BeanieBaby craze of tech were a publicly traded company stands to make billions. It's revolution, it's blue chip, it's a whole new standard, and they're basically upset that they're not intelligent enough to have known that - so now they're going to short the market in retaliation. Oh don't forget the wizards of Wall Street who program auto-sell trades based off the unemployment rate which went up slightly (completely expectedly) - and that triggered god knows how many immediate sell offs, which of course lead to people panicking and making worse sell off decisions. Thankfully there's still a lot of faithful buyers our there! Edit: That quip in the article about earnings calls not being stable or predictable, etc... Trust me when I say that damn near every financial analyst who is talking about or reporting on AI - doesn't know squat about the technology or its current rate or progress and where things stand. If they did, they'd have noticed that META just posted a 22% gain in revenue for Q2. That's not going to go away either since it is based on their ads on platforms having become hyper targeting and it's increased overall spend. I dunno, it's just funny. A room (where I see them being anyhow) of financial analysts who are crying because now there's a new wave coming through and it's even harder for them to understand than smart phones or cloud computing (remember that bubble?!). Thankfully I'm quite sure this is the last time that they'll be able to do this or that the market will fluctuate in this way. Sounds crazy to say, but I understand how things are going to change and I can definitely see that change not allowing for speculation to drive markets anymore - as it never should have been able to in the first place. BTW did I mention that this topic gets under my skin yet? 😂😂😂 --- This post was migrated from connect.com and was originally published at an earlier date.

[nlafakis]

Ever since Goldman put out that story about GenAI being too costly a venture, I mean I about straight up lost my shit. I have no doubt there are firms poised to short that market specifically because they understand the layout is long term and that people who normally bet short term, misplaced their bets. --- This post was migrated from connect.com and was originally published at an earlier date.

[goconnor]

Really? I had no idea this topic gets under your skin 😂 --- This post was migrated from connect.com and was originally published at an earlier date.

[Victor_Becerra]

I agree with Raffy . It seems to me that while GenAI has some useful capabilities, it's not an all-encompassing solution. This makes it challenging to discern the real value between different AI tools, especially for everyday tasks. I've always believed that we'll reach a "Singularity" when a single tool can handle all the various tasks we need in a simple, cost-effective, and high-quality way—much like what happened with browsers and social media apps. I'm curious, though: How do these recent developments align with or contradict the longer-term forecasts for AI development? what do you think Nico Lafakis Jim Wrubel Sarah Ockenfels calculus christian dode --- This post was migrated from connect.com and was originally published at an earlier date.

[Raffy]

From my AI enthusiast point of view, I am not surprised. There appeared to have been a mad rush to monetize AI rather than produce something of real value. The "value" declared seemed to have been over-promised and under-delivered. As an AI enthusiast, I've always managed my expectations and focused on what AI can realistically achieve. I'm quite happy with its current capabilities. I imagine, those who expected industrial-strength solutions or bought into the hype are the ones feeling burned. I hope this bubble bursting, encourages a more grounded approach and shifts focus on practical, impactful, and sustainable solutions. --- This post was migrated from connect.com and was originally published at an earlier date.

[RomanGruit]

Thanks for sharing. I enjoyed reading that author. I partially agree with the author. I am just not sure that symbolic AI is the only solution to hallucinations problem --- This post was migrated from connect.com and was originally published at an earlier date.