Can anyone explain how hubspot calculate the deal forecast category, forecast probability?

Smart CRM & Sales Hub CRM
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Can anyone explain how hubspot calculate the deal forecast category, forecast probability, forecast amount, forecast revenue.

Because I wanted to create deal forecasting report including all these metrics. So I wanted to confirm on what are all metrics these 4 metrics relies and on what calculation of those metrics these 4 properties values are created.

Please can anyone clearly explain. As I don’t find detailed information on any knowledge base.

Thanks

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Hi @mariselvi,

Happy to help here :slightly_smiling_face:

Here are the definitions from the deal properties page: HubSpot's default deal properties

  • Forecast amount: the deal amount multiplied by the forecast probability. This can be used as a filter when building a custom report. To view expected revenue in the forecast toolor when viewing an individual deal record, it is recommended to use the Weighted amount property.
  • Forecast category: the likelihood of the deal closing, categorized as Omit, Pipeline, Best case, Most likely, Commit, or Closed. You can also create and use custom categories to forecast your deal revenue. If you’ve turned on the Automate forecast categories setting, this property will be automatically updated by HubSpot when a deal moves to a new stage.
  • Forecast probability: the custom percent probability that the deal will close. To customize and automatically calculate this property, you’ll need to create a workflow with the Set a property value action (Professionaland Enterprise only).

Probabilities are specified in the deal stage settings, per stage: Set up and manage object pipelines

The forecast category (and tool in general) is explained in detail here: Set up the forecast tool

Habe a look and let me know of you have any follow-up questions!

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What would a sample workflow for the Forecast probability look like?

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Hi Karsten, could you help me understand what is the difference between forecast probability and the deal probability? Where shall I use each?

Thank you very much!

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Hi @mariselvi, These three get conflated constantly — here’s the clean split:

  • Deal probability → tied to the deal stage, drives Weighted amount (Amount × probability). This is math.

  • Forecast category (Pipeline / Best case / Commit / Closed / Omitted) → a rep judgment layer in the Forecast tool. A rep can Commit a 60% deal because they know something the stage doesn’t.

  • Forecast/win probability (higher Sales Hub tiers) → HubSpot’s predictive AI score.

One deal can hold all three at once — they answer different questions (math vs judgment vs model) and aren’t meant to match. The common mistake is assuming the weighted amount already includes rep judgment; it doesn’t. Happy to clarify any of the three.

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@calculatoring Thanks for adding to this, one clarification though: Forecast Category isn’t really “typically mapped from the deal stage,” that’s the common misconception I was flagging above. It’s a manual judgment call a rep makes in the Forecast tool (Pipeline, Best Case, Commit, Closed), independent of the stage-based probability math. If it were just mapped from stage, there’d be no reason for it to exist separately from Weighted amount.

On Forecast Revenue, worth being precise here too, that’s not a per-deal number, it’s the aggregate of forecast amounts across whatever deals and time period you’ve filtered to in the Forecast tool. Easy to read it as “yet another per-deal formula” when it’s actually just a rollup of the other three.