Best way to build a dynamic probability property for Deals

Smart CRM & Sales Hub CRM
1

I am trying to build a dynamic probability based on two existing properties, so we can report a more accurate deal probability. Our deals are often very long sales cycle, so we plan to create a matrix of both Deal Stage (project stage based) and Deal Status (the health of the deal) that spits out a probability percentage when both are true.

I’ve looked at custom properties with calculation, but I’m not sure on the right formula to do this. If anyone has a better idea to build this, I’d love suggestions!

2

Hi @GRowe,

This is a smart way to think about deal probability, especially with long sales cycles, just relying on deal stage alone often misses the real picture.

We’ve set this up for a few teams before, and the best workaround is usually using workflows rather than calculated properties. Basically:

  • Create a custom number property like “Adjusted Probability”
  • Then build out workflow logic (if/then branches) based on combinations of Deal Stage and Deal Status
  • Each combo sets a different probability value, based on your matrix

It takes a bit of time to set up, but once it’s running, it works well and gives your reporting way more depth.

Best,

Jess

3

Hi @GRowe,

I think you’re on the right track with a calculation property. The approach here would be to use nested if-statements: Create calculation and rollup properties

Keep in mind that each deal stage already has a probability: Set up and manage object pipelines

Your calculation property might be as simple as a multiplication of ‘Deal probability’ with your health indicator. If you share the exact math you’d like to apply, I can advise on the formula.

In my opinion, this approach is typically superior to workflows for a few reason:

  • Isn’t subject to workflow outages (rare, but they do happen)
  • Doesn’t require re-enrollment for every single calculation (which clogs the activity timeline on deal records)

Alternatively, there is a public beta for deal scores under Settings > Product updates > All > Manually Score Deals and Companies with Sales Hub. These are a bit easier to configure than calculation properties and could also be a way for you to achieve your goal, e.g. a score of 100 where 50% are made up of points for the stage, 50% of the points are made up of the health.

Manually Score Deals and Companies with Sales Hub

What is it?

You can now manually score deals and companies using the Lead Scoring app with Sales Hub Professional or Enterprise.

Why does it matter?

Effective scoring provides accurate, actionable insights that empower sales reps to identify which deals to prioritize and which companies to prospect first. With manual scoring, you and your sales team can customize the scoring rules that are most impactful for your business, ensuring efforts are always focused on accelerating deal closure.

With the Lead Scoring app now in both Marketing Hub and Sales Hub, your marketing and sales teams can seamlessly collaborate and maintain consistent criteria for evaluating contacts, companies, and deals in a unified and single scoring solution. Sales teams are also able to migrate their manual deal scores from the legacy scoring property, that is sunsetting on August 31, 2025.

How does it work?

1. In the Global Navigation Bar on the left, navigate to Marketing > Lead Scoring. Once in the Lead Scoring app, click “Create score”.

2. Select “Deals” and click “Create”.

3. Start building your score by clicking “+ Add event group” or “+ Add property group”.

Within an event group, you can add event criteria such as Ads, Calls, Forms, etc.

Within a property group, you can add objects such as Deal, Associated contact, Associated company, etc.

4. Click on the “Deals” tab to choose which deals to include or exclude in scoring.

5. Click on the “Settings” tab to edit the property label and customize the score thresholds.

6. You can also edit the name of the score and then click “Review and turn on”. After reviewing your score, click “Turn on”.

7. After turning your score on, you will receive the following confirmation with next steps.

Note: You can also score companies with a combined score similar to deals, or with the fit and engagement criteria as separate scores.

Who gets it?

Customers with Professional Customer Platform, Enterprise Customer Platform, Sales Professional, and Sales Enterprise.

Best regards!

4

Hi Karsten, thanks for the tip here! I’m not planning a multiplication formula as such, but more of a matrix indexing of values from a table. I have a property called Deal Status, and the standard Deal Stage. I have created a custom property called Dynamic Deal Probability, which will be where the % value lives for each deal.

At some point we may create a workflow to override the system Deal Stage probability but that is not critical for now.

Here’s a the table below…

652×132 29.3 KB

5

@GRowe I would probably approach this with a deal score, see my previous reply. Assign 5 points if deal is in first stage and has status new or on track, assign 10 points if deal is in first stage and has status hot, etc.

I frankly think that this is potentially overcomplicating things. Do also keep in mind that this will not work with HubSpot’s own forecasting tools.

6

Hi Karsten, is there a formual you might recommend to do this rather than using scoring? I’m not sure if that is soemthing we want to use if it’s in beta.

7

@GRowe the matrix is too big for this be done with a formula. This would be one large nested set of if statements for every single cell. I would advise against it.

Betas in HubSpot are typically perfectly fine to use, I wouldn’t be concerned about this.