topic Re: Calculating Historic/Actual Close Probability for Each Deal Stage in Dashboards & Reporting

Calculating Historic/Actual Close Probability for Each Deal Stage

heatherlodge — Thu, 11 Jul 2024 15:12:40 GMT

I'm creating a report for a client that shows what the true deal close probability is for each deal stage historically. They want to see if the probabilities they have set are accurate or need to be adjusted based on actual close rates.

I've gotten something I think is close to correct, but I need some confirmation/guidance. Here's how I've set it up... I'll use the first deal stage (New Opportunity as an example):

My thought process

Want to look at only one pipeline in the account - SMB Pharm
Want to calculate the actual close rate from the first deal stage (New Opportunity) to Closed Won from a year ago until now
If they've ever been a New Opportunity and now are Closed Won, then that says to me the percentage in the nude colored wedge is the actual closed probability - 28.43%
- Total deals: 102
- 29 are now closed
- 29/102 = 28.43%
Then, I'd do the exact same for each stage, i.e. if they've ever been XYZ stage and are now Closed/Won

So, my questions are:

Have I, in fact, calculated this correctly? My brain is swimming at this point!
Is there a better way, visually, I can display this natively in HubSpot? I'd like to show this probability rate for each stage but am struggling to figure out how to do it, unless it looks like this:

Thanks in advance!

Re: Calculating Historic/Actual Close Probability for Each Deal Stage

BérangèreL — Mon, 15 Jul 2024 07:07:05 GMT

Hi @heatherlodge,

Thank you for reaching out to the Community and for sharing some screenshots!

I'd be happy to put you in touch with some of our Top Experts on this subject: Hi @johnelmer, @GCasali and @GeorgeBThomas do you have suggestions to help @heatherlodge, please?

Also, if anybody else has anything to add and/or share, please feel free to join in the conversation 🙂

Thanks a lot and have a fantastic day!

Best,
Bérangère

Re: Calculating Historic/Actual Close Probability for Each Deal Stage

heatherlodge — Wed, 17 Jul 2024 13:10:10 GMT

Just checking back... @johnelmer, @GCasali and @GeorgeBThomas, any thoughts on this one? Thanks in advance!

Re: Calculating Historic/Actual Close Probability for Each Deal Stage

DHicks9 — Wed, 26 Mar 2025 11:31:51 GMT

Did you find a solution for this?

Re: Calculating Historic/Actual Close Probability for Each Deal Stage

MHayes7 — Thu, 10 Apr 2025 04:25:24 GMT

I would like to know if a solution was found for this question. I find it interesting that HubSpot does not have a native report for this, seems like a useful metric for any business that wants to assess if their deal stage probabilities are accurate.